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Just six months after Kemi Badenoch took the helm of the UK Conservative Party, talk of replacing her is already swirling within party circles.
With crucial local elections in England just around the corner, frustration is building among Conservative MPs and officials, many of whom are losing confidence in Badenoch’s ability to lead the party into the next general election, set for 2029.
According to more than two dozen insiders who spoke anonymously to Bloomberg, there’s a growing movement backing Robert Jenrick, the right-wing shadow justice secretary, as a potential successor.
Badenoch, who assumed leadership on November 2, 2024, is under fire amid slumping poll numbers and fears that she hasn’t tackled key voter concerns—leaving the party vulnerable to Nigel Farage’s surging Reform Party. While Badenoch’s camp declined to comment, Jenrick’s spokesperson highlighted his public support for Badenoch, urging colleagues to give her more time.
However, the looming local elections threaten to deepen the crisis. The Conservatives are bracing for heavy losses, a stark contrast to their strong showing in 2021 under Boris Johnson, buoyed then by the success of the COVID-19 vaccine rollout.
Now, political experts predict a catastrophic performance, with Rob Ford, a political science professor at the University of Manchester, describing the upcoming results as a “total and unmitigated disaster.” Recent polls show the Tories lagging more than five points behind both Labour and Reform, with Reform now a serious force on the right.
Originally, Badenoch was expected to have until the summer of 2026 to solidify her leadership, but growing unrest suggests she might face a challenge much sooner. One senior party figure bleakly noted she has entered the “political death zone,” with her leadership a hot topic among MPs and party donors.
Badenoch took over from Rishi Sunak after the Conservatives suffered a crushing defeat to Labour in 2023. While some argue she needs more time to rebuild after such a historic loss, patience is wearing thin.
Critics say she’s been too focused on divisive issues like net-zero policies and transgender rights, neglecting core voter concerns like crime and immigration.
Her appearances at Prime Minister’s Questions have also drawn criticism for failing to land blows on Labour leader Keir Starmer, often backfiring and highlighting the Tories’ own failings.
Meanwhile, Farage’s Reform Party continues to gain traction, further squeezing Badenoch’s appeal. Some Conservatives argue she’s caught in a no-man’s-land: too right-wing for centrist voters, yet not hardline enough to outflank Farage.
Robert Jenrick, meanwhile, is increasingly seen as a potential successor. He’s won support on the Conservative right with his tough stances on crime and national sovereignty, and recent polling suggests he enjoys higher approval among party members than Badenoch. Still, some moderates fear that under Jenrick, the party could lurch even further right and alienate mainstream voters.
For now, the future remains uncertain. Party figures are divided over whether a leadership change would salvage their prospects—or deepen the divide. One thing is clear: the results of the upcoming local elections will be critical. If media coverage focuses more on Farage’s rise rather than the Conservatives’ fall, Badenoch might cling on a bit longer. Otherwise, her days as leader could be numbered.
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