Newsie Events: #Opinion
Sometimes we need to be realistic. Peter Obi does not control the party structure in his state. His influence is very very limited in the politics of the south east. He does not have a personal structure like let’s say Chimaroke of Enugu or Tinubu of Lagos. He does not hold Anambra like Wike of Rivers, neither does he have a base like Kwankwaso of Kano or even die-hard lieutenants In the south like Atiku does. He does not have the political brevity to move into an unpopular party and still win elections like Rochas did with the APC and Orji Uzor with the PPA that year.
Do you know how Atiku won the PDP ticket last time? He made dollars reign. He was the highest bidder. If elections
come to the point where you need to be the highest bidder, where you need to match money for money, Obi is not the type that would do such even if he has the money. Do you know how Wike was able to retain rivers state despite the APC led FG being hell-bent on winning the state ? Wike was ready to match fire for fire. If you want to play do or die politics, Wike will give it back to you. Can Obi do such ? I don’t think so. He is a nice guy and nice guys lose in Nigerian politics.
Unfortunately, These are things that matters in Nigerian politics.
Obi is very intelligent. But you need more than being intelligent to win a national election. He may have the best ideas but ideas don’t win elections here. The chances of candidates like Obi are dependent on the magnanimity of powerful forces within and perhaps outside his party. Take for instance, Just like Yaradua, he needs an Obasanjo or many Obasanjos to stand a chance. Yaradua stood no chance. Obasanjo did the unthinkable and committed the worst rigging in Nigerian elections history to install yaradua.
Like Obi like Osibanjo.
The reason why bad people always stand better chance in our elections is because they understand the game better and are willing to play it to the very end. In another example, Kingsely Moghalu’s party is unpopular. As sound as his ideas are, he need the right political structure. Nigerian Politics go beyond attacking Government on social media or presenting darling speeches on media platforms. You need to have capacity or the support of those who have capacity. You need to “Go street” to stand a chance.
Unless one powerful godfather or group of godfathers with the capacity and influence over several Political structure backs the candidacy of people like Obi and Osibanjo, they are going no where. Peter Obi and Osibanjo knows this that is why they are being careful with their declarations.
Good people need to learn to play Nigerian politics the Nigerian way.
PS: if you think Peter Obi will win because many people online are doing aww aww or wow wow to his ideas, remember that more than half of them do not even have PVCs, neither are they active members of any of the strong parties not to talk about being influential party members. Primary elections or any elections at all are not won on social media.
Okay bye bye
Caleb Onyeabor is a Nigerian intellectual, an avid advocate for political justice, social justice, and economic justice. Author of Diary of a Messed Up country. Follow him on Twitter via twitter.com/caleb_onyeabor
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