How Edo was won and lost. Musings on 2023 By Caleb Onyeabor

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Just as in every politics, the most important variable that decided the Edo election is the elites. The game in Edo was a struggle between one elite against the other. Following his fallout with Oshiomole, Obaseki was smart and dogged enough to seek new alliances with other heavyweights in the region by aligning with the PDP bloc which already has a strong structure in the South-South.
As usual, the people are the pawns. Whoever wins will always use the people as a justification for their victory. If the APC had won, they will also use the people to claim victory. This is how democratic-elitism works.
After his fallout with the elites within the APC, Obaseki was smart enough to seek the support of powerful elites in another party. An alliance that paid off in the elections. Anything short of that, the people have no clue.
Edo election was not decided by the People as they want to make us believe. When you say the People decided, it has to be backed by an overwhelming difference that shows clearly who the decision of the people is. In Edo, the PDP had over 300k votes while the APC had over 200k votes. The PDP didn’t win by consensus, the APC had a whopping 200k votes. The 200,000 persons that voted APC are they not also part of ” The People “?
In my personal opinion, the internal wrangling within the APC led to their defeat. This was an APC where a ward chairman was suspending the then national chairman. Oshiomole ran over a divided house. The Edo chapter of the APC has been weakened and divided. This is why they were not strong enough to wrestle against their PDP counterpart despite the elites and bigwigs on both sides.
Nevertheless, you should never write off the power of ” A Strong Man” in Nigerian politics. Wike has shown he is a strong man and it was easier for him because he was fighting against a weaker and divided APC.
In a typical “strong man” model of African politics, the only thing that led to the downfall of the PDP in 2015 is internal party contradiction. The only thing that will lead to the downfall of the APC in 2023 is internal party contradiction. Internal party contradiction cost the APC Edo, until they ruin themselves by themselves, forget it. Until they self-destruct, ruling parties don’t usually lose here. Internal party contradiction, not the people, not PDP, not performance, will ruin APC in 2023. If you are waiting for anything else, you will wait forever.
Okay bye-bye.  Caleb Onyeabor writes from Enugu