Like Awolowo, Like Abiola, How History may Repeat itself on Tinubu By Caleb Onyeabor

Newsie Events: #Opinion

Politics is a game and when the game is played on a zero-sum model, the consequences of losing and being outplayed is usually fatal.
The former Governor of Lagos, Bola Tinubu, despite building a vast and successful political empire for himself, has for some time now been saddled with the reality of contending with some powerful opposing political Bloc that can ordinarily pass for a cabal.
It is really not difficult to point out that the mission of this opposing force is to stop Tinubu from achieving his presidential ambitions. For someone as powerful as the Jagaban, it will take clearly calculated steps in order to get rid of. Jagaban has built a strong and wide political structure by sponsoring the election of a large number of politicians who occupy critical positions across the state and federal levels. With several of his cronies and godsons strategically placed in key and sensitive positions and his role as the bankroller of the All Progressive Congress, he has amassed a considerable amount of political capital to pave way for his ascendancy to the Presidency but the cabal has other sinister plans.
Tinubu’s money is not his strength. It might have been but not when he has helped a certain group of persons clinch power and have access to the national treasure. Something they can easily deploy to counter his financial prowess. To really bring Tinubu down, they need to, first of all, shatter his fortress and strongholds and then bring up a reason to hang him. With his strongmen out of the way, hanging him wouldn’t be a problem.
From my personal observation, they have tamed Osibanjo, a man Tinubu singlehandedly made vice President. Then, they came for Oshiomole, a one-time strong national party chairman of Tinubu’s APC who would have made it easier for Tinubu to consolidate his hold and influence on the APC. They came for Fowler, Tinubu’s anointed Chairman of Federal Internal Revenue Services (FIRS), and where it mattered most, they came for Magu, Tinubu’s loyalist who doubled as Chairman of the country’s anti-graft agency. With these men gone and out of the way, they had brought out Tinubu’s corrupt scandals – the biggest reason with which they can use to hang the Jagaban. The recent case levied upon Tinubu by an ex MD of Alpha Beta seems to contain heavy allegations and revelations that can justify the rounding up of Tinubu by the cabal.
In this game, if you want to bring a strong man down, take down his fortresses and defences and when he is vulnerable, Strike. This is the exact script that is being played on Asiwaju.
From a historical perspective, Bola Tinubu’s romance with Buhari might just end like Abiola and Babangida or like Awolowo and Gowon. Awolowo worked for the Gowon government with the hope that he will be compensated with the support of the North in order to achieve his Presidential ambition, he was disappointed. Abiola just like Tinubu was a good friend of Babangida and his military cronies. He was reported to have financed the coup that led to the emergence of Babangida the same way Tinubu reportedly financed the emergence of Buhari in 2015. When it was Abiola’s chance to be President, when he was so close to being President, he was betrayed by the men he helped bring into power.
This is likely going to be the case of Tinubu. Like Awolowo, Like Abiola, Like Tinubu. The south-west and Northern alliance is set to hit another rocky path.
The game is not yet over for Tinubu. He still has a few cards left in his hands. In a normal game-theoretical move, he has an option of compromising to minimize his loss, buy more time and strike again or risk losing it all by going head to head with the forces contending with him. The possible outcomes are he either emerge victoriously or watch his political dynasty and career, one which he has labored to build for years crumble.
It is pertinent to state that Tinubu’s involvement in corruption is about to be his Achilles Heel. A lesson for others to try as much as possible to keep their hands clean in this game of power. Based on the allegations, Tinubu might have been smart to use others as front lines in committing his crime, he may not get away with it.
The cabal, for now, is faceless. Although one can make a few guesses and point at a few faces, for now, who they are, remains a close guess.
For now, sit back, grab a cup of coffee, and enjoy the game.
Caleb Onyeabor writes from Enugu and can be reached on WhatsApp on +2347032829241

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